CARL'S FIGHT BREAKDOWNS, EPISODE 152: BACK IN THE PIT

Carl looks at UFC Fight Night: Taira vs Alb--uh, Park, and trudges wearily back into the Apex.

SATURDAY, AUGUST 2 FROM THE APEX. IT'S JUST THE APEX. WHY ARE WE AT THE APEX
PRELIMS 3 PM PDT / 6 PM EDT | MAIN CARD 6 PM / 9 PM

It sure was a nice, long vacation from the Apex. We went two whole months without getting stuck in the fight closet, and honestly, it was a breath of fresh air. Seven whole events with crowds, and contendership matches, and at least some level of effort going into the cards. Knowing that we were heading into two back-to-back Apex weeks made me wince, but we've been to the Apex before, we'll be there again, and truly, how bad could it be?

Funny story: This card doesn't currently have a main event.

I write these in phases--topline, main event and co-main on Sunday, main card on Monday, prelims on Tuesday, to allow optimal time for everything to get jumbled like it always does--and on this particular Sunday morning, news leaked that Tatsuro Taira vs Amir Albazi was off. The UFC has yet to announce it, nor is there any word on its replacement, and they don't bother booking backups outside of pay-per-views.

So we're less than a week out from the show, and I'm writing it out of order because I don't know what's going to be on top of it. Will they find another Flyweight for Taira? Will they do some kind of cross-class matchup with a Bantamweight who doesn't give a shit? Will they abandon 125 altogether and get Waldo Cortes-Acosta in here to fight Marcin Tybura or something?

Maybe we'll find out! Maybe we won't. Either way I apologize for writing this out of order, but that's the sport we've got.

(They put Hyun Sung Park in on Monday afternoon.)

some of it’s good, but yeah

MAIN EVENT: PROSPECT PROSPECTS
FLYWEIGHT: Tatsuro Taira (16-1, #6) vs Hyun Sung Park (10-0, NR)

Just like that, we have yet another 'top-ranked fighter defends their position against a UFC rookie' bout. I'd like to say I don't blame the UFC, as replacing fights less than a week out is tough and replacing main events less than a week out is torture, but the whole reason Hyun Sung Park was available to take this bout in the first place was his already-scheduled matchup with Steve Erceg next week on the 9th.

You know, Steve Erceg! The #10-ranked man in the division, whom you theoretically also could have put in this fight! Or Tim Elliott at #11, who's booked for Kai Asakura on the 16th--or, hell, Kai Asakura himself, down at #15. Charles Johnson is borderline-ranked and has one loss after a four-fight winning streak that included a knockout over the current #1 contender and he was going to fight on the 23rd!

But it's Hyun Sung Park, huh?

Tatsuro Taira had a bitch of a time getting here. It took a Shooto championship, en route to which he beat folks like former WEC title challenger Yoshiro Maeda and DEEP champion Ryuya Fukuda, a main event in Japan and six straight UFC wins to get to the top. He became the first man to knock out Carlos Hernandez to get here. He kneecapped Alex Perez to get here. Even his last fight--his first loss--was a very close split decision loss to Brandon Royval, the then-top contender and former title challenger.

Hyun Sung Park had one victory over someone with a winning record before making it to the first Road to UFC talent-scouting tournament, he made a great accounting of himself within it by stopping everyone in his bracket and getting his UFC contract at the start of 2023. In the subsequent two and a half years he's had two UFC fights and two UFC wins. One of them was a knockout over Shannon Ross, who was 0-2 in the UFC and on a three-fight losing streak. The other?

Carlos Hernandez, the man Tatsuro Taira bopped.

So once again, just as with Joshua Van vs Brandon Royval last month, a top contender goes from a fairly equitable fight (in this case, Taira was supposed to meet Amir Albazi) to fighting someone on the polar opposite end of the ladder, and as we saw in Van/Royval, they can absolutely lose. Flyweight has always been an absurdly underrated shark tank of a division where almost everyone is good at everything, so every fight is a big risk. Park's powerful and dangerous on the ground and he's got some damned good combinations when he lets them go. I wasn't surprised they booked him against Erceg after two fights and I'm only marginally more surprised he got the call up here.

But he's also very, very used to being the hammer instead of the nail. He's been a profoundly better grappler or a much better puncher than his opponents thus far, but Taira got his own laser-beam left hands and grappling with him is a terrifying proposition for anyone in the division. I don't see Park bullying Taira the way he's bullied everyone else in his career, and when he can't rely on that kind of advantage we'll get to see what he's really made of.

I hope we get there, anyway. I think it's going to be extremely competitive but TATSURO TAIRA BY DECISION is still the call.

CO-MAIN EVENT: SURE
LIGHTWEIGHT: Chris Duncan (13-2) vs Mateusz Rębecki (20-2)

In light of the whole 'there's currently no main event' thing I am here, instead, and it's hard not to feel weird about it because I already felt weird enough about this as a co-main.

As is always the case: Neither of these guys are bad! I've written on multiple occasions about my love for Mateusz Rębecki and his angry haymakers, and Chris Duncan's had some good chokes, and both men are 4-1 in the UFC and their fighting each other makes perfect sense. It's a great matchup!

It's just a really slim choice for a co-main event. Even the last Apex event had Mateusz Gamrot vs Ľudovít Klein in this slot (at least before Erin Blanchfield was called back to her home planet thirty seconds before the fight). Mateusz Rębecki is good! But he got knocked out one fight ago and he's now on a one-fight winning streak. Chris Duncan's has two wins behind him, and the last one was over Jordan Vucenic, whom the UFC deemed not company material immediately after Duncan choked him out.

Which makes this essentially two slightly dented prospects trying to out-prospect one another. Which is fine! There's nothing wrong with it. But you've got a ranked women's fight two spots down from here, and hell, Neil Magny and Elizeu Zaleski are still co-main-worthy and far better-known names on an advertisement. Is the hope that by putting Duncan and Rębecki up here they'll get extra attention and launch one of them into the contender zone if one happens to violently finish the other?

That is, at least, feasible. There's much more attention on Duncan for his grappling thanks to, y'know, all of the chokes lately, but it was his tendency to knock people out that got him his shot at the big show (where he immediately ceased knocking people out). Rębecki is an angry rampaging punchman who likes to swing hammers and shoot armbars and exhaust himself trying to prove Wanderlei Silva was the one true way mixed martial artists should fight. Rębecki's giving up almost half a foot in reach, which may make getting said hammers on target a big harder than it should be, but that's never stopped him from trying.

And I have a weird amount of faith in him. MATEUSZ RĘBECKI BY TKO.

MAIN CARD: AT LEAST THEY'RE NOT ON THE PRELIMS
LIGHTWEIGHT: Esteban Ribovics (14-2) vs Elves Brener (16-5)

Esteban Ribovics, your flag is fading. Like so many Samurai Fight House callups before him, "El Gringo" joined the Contender Series as an undefeated South American prospect, won his contract fight against conveniently undersized, underprepared competition, got into the UFC and immediately lost. His hard-striking style and his long-ass legs kept him viable, particularly when he managed to put one of them upside Terrance McKinney's head in thirty-seven seconds, and the company's faith in him paid off, as he had a fight-of-the-year contender with Daniel Zellhuber at the end of 2024 that not only earned Ribovics some stylistic fans, but gave him a win over a name the UFC had gone out of its way to protect. Unfortunately, he followed it up by dropping a close split decision to Nasrat Haqparast, and even more unfortunately, that crown-jewel win got a touch tarnished when Zellhuber dropped a fight to Michael Johnson last month.

But Elves Brener is familiar with the fading-hype lifestyle. Brener went from an unnkown prospect in 2022 to a nearly-ranked Lightweight by the end of 2023 thanks to a triplet of victories--well, more of a couplet, given that the first one was a pretty absurd robbery against Zubaira Tukhugov, but then he knocked the fuck out of Guram Kutateladze and Kaynan Kruschewsky and people were suddenly paying close attention to him. So, as these things go, he promptly lost. He got wrestled to death by Myktybek Orolbai and picked apart by Joel Alvarez to the tune of the first knockout he'd ever suffered, and just as quickly as the audience interest came, it went. Brener's obviously still dangerous as hell, he's got dynamite in his hands and he is more than willing to wing it, but the same way we just discussed that win over Zellhuber fading a bit, knocking out Kutateladze doesn't look quite as good since Guram's looked like a shadow of his former self ever since.

ESTEBAN RIBOVICS BY DECISION.

WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT: Karol Rosa (18-7, #10) vs Nora Cornolle (9-2, #12)

Oh, Women's Featherweight, the wreckage of your greatness lives to this day. Karol Rosa was second only to Norma Dumont for a shot at the mostly-imaginary 145-pound championship, but the tragic death of the division drove the talent back down to Bantamweight, and at 135, Rosa's success has been mixed. She returned to the weight class in loss, but said loss was a fight-of-the-year contender with title challenger Irene Aldana, and there's no shame in that. Beating Pannie Kianzad wasn't much of a surprise, but a win is a win. Getting outwrestled by Ailín Pérez? Less good.

Nora Cornolle joined the UFC after mauling underqualified women for UAE Warriors out in Abu Dhabi. She debuted with a decision over the embattled Joselyne Edwards that probably should have gone Joselyne's way, and she followed that up by missing weight and knocking out Melissa Mullins, who was 1-0 in the company. Cornolle then got clearly beat by Jacqueline Cavalcanti (but only lost a split decision thanks to some more suspect judging), went back to the drawing board, and returned to win another stoppage victory, this time over Hailey Cowan, where Cornolle once again missed weight.

I's really funny to compare these two and their place in the rankings. Karol Rosa had four Bantamweight wins in the UFC before she was a successful Featherweight and now she's mixing it up with top contenders with mixed results; she's #10. Two of Nora Cornolle's victories came over women with only one UFC fight apiece, Cornolle failed to make weight in either fight and the one good win on her record was dubiously earned; she's #12.

Women's Bantamweight continues to be cursed. KAROL ROSA BY DECISION.

WELTERWEIGHT: Neil Magny (29-13) vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (25-9-1)

At a certain point I feel like I need to begin doing Neil Magny fight write-ups in interpretive dance. There is nothing left to say for this man. He has been around since the deserts were oceans. His cardio-boxing punches formed the caverns australopithecines huddled in to survive the elements. His takedowns felled the monarchy and ushered in the modern age of capitalist corruption. He fought veteran champions of organizations that closed a decade and a half ago and now he gets knocked out by men like Michael Morales and Carlos Prates who the world only discovered five minutes ago, on the cosmic scale of things. He is not, as some say, a has been: He is the one who Has Been.

Which is funny, because Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos has been fighting one year longer than Magny has, and he's one year older than Magny is, and his run feels much shorter. Is it because he's only had half as many fights in the UFC itself and the sport is so myopically monopolistic that if you aren't in the UFC you don't really exist? Clearly, the answer is yes, but that's boring so I'm going to ignore it. I think it's because Zaleski is a creature of violence who strives at all times to kick people as hard as he possibly can, and that pleasure is far more fleeting than Magny's many decisions.

Both of these men look pretty worn these days, but the degree to which Magny's starting to struggle with pressure concerns me more. ELIZEU ZALESKI DOS SANTOS BY TKO.

FEATHERWEIGHT: Danny Silva (10-1) vs Kevin Vallejos (15-1)

I'm looking forward to this one. Danny Silva drew some real tough competition in his two UFC fights thus far, first in the form of Josh Culibao, who was so painfully close to being a thing in the UFC but simply couldn't get over the judging hump, and second in accomplished striker Lucas Almeida. Both were very close, back-and-forth fights, both were split decisions that leaned closer to Silva than his opponents, and aside from the sting of Silva missing weight against Culibao, he's looked fun and competitive and well-rounded enough to potentially be a thing.

Kevin Vallejos i--oh, hey, look at that, he's another Samurai Fight House guy! God, they really cornered the market on the Contender Series, somehow. He came from a background of knocking people out, most of whom had no realistic chance to beat him, and the UFC decided to capitalize on it by pitching him a Contender Series fighter with half his experience, and Vallejos knocked him out, too, so now he's here. He made his debut this past March by crushing Seungwoo Choi in a single round, and having beaten everyone thus far with large right hands, we know what he wants to do.

Vallejos is a huge betting favorite here, so I'm a bit out on a limb, but I think the train is getting derailed by experience. DANNY SILVA BY DECISION.

PRELIMS: SLIGHTLY MINIMAL
BANTAMWEIGHT: Rinya Nakamura (9-1) vs Nathan Fletcher (9-2)

It's funny how this fight exists as the dark side of the main event's moon. Rinya Nakamura was supposed to be in Hyun Sung Park's position. Nakamura won the Bantamweight Road to UFC tournament in the same year as Park, he rifled off two strong UFC wins, and as of this writing, just like Park, he was supposed to be an undefeated 10-0 prospect riding a big wave of hype towards the top fifteen. But unlike Park, Rinya's path took him through Muin Gafurov this year, and despite being a massive, prohibitive betting favorite, Nakamura fell victim to the most tried and true of the mixed martial arts: Wrestleboxing. Gafurov punched him up and took him down, and now, for the first time in his career, Rinya has to fight back from a loss. Fortunately, so does Nathan Fletcher. A couple weeks ago I wrote about the UFC's intense desire to make Robert Valentin the protagonist of The Ultimate Fighter Whatever The Fuck The Last Season Was (over it), but Nathan Fletcher was the close second. Was it his intense fighting skills? Not really; he was okay but didn't exactly light the world on fire. Was it his amazing sense of humor and charisma? He seemed nice and pleasant, but that was about it. Was it his being both a British fighter and a training partner for Paddy Pimblett?

Now you're getting it. RINYA NAKAMURA BY DECISION.

MIDDLEWEIGHT: Rodolfo Vieira (10-3) vs Tresean Gore (5-3)

This won't be the best fight on this card, but there's a very good chance it will be the funniest. Rodolfo Vieira is one of the world's most accomplished grapplers, a man with more gold medals in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu than most fighters have fights, and despite this he's struggled so thoroughly with adapting both is skills and his gas tank to mixed martial arts that he's 5-3 in the UFC and hasn't actually beaten anyone with a positive record in the company. Tresean Gore was a multi-time state wrestling champion whom the UFC felt strongly enough as a prospect to sign up for TUF 29 (https://i.imgur.com/mIxGUSe.png) despite only having three professional fights, and in the four years since he's managed to go 2-3 and get knocked out twice by big swinging right hands.

Gore's a wrestler who has trouble using it fighting someone he doesn't want to take down, but he gets clipped by wild rights. Vieira's a grappler who has trouble fighting people he can't take down and when he gets tired he tends to swing wildly. Whatever happens in this fight, it will almost assuredly be silly, and that's the best prize of all. TRESEAN GORE BY DECISION.

MIDDLEWEIGHT: Nick Klein (6-2) vs Andrey Pulyaev (9-3)

The UFC recently bragged in mid-event about how 1/3 of its roster now comes from the Contender Series, making it the premier source of high-calibre fighters for the world of mixed martial arts. Nick Klein got his shot at DWCS thanks to his 2023 submission victory over Cory Simpson, who was 22-21, in the main event of Midwest Cage Championship's Thanksgiving Throwdown; Andrey Pulyaev fought for former Bellator champion Alexander Shlemenko's Shlemenko Fighting Championship, where he nobly knocked out Well "Mutante" Oliveira, who was 38-21-1. Coincidentally, both men lost their UFC debuts, with Pulyaev dropping a decision to the embattled Christian Leroy Duncan and Klein getting punched out by Mansur Abdul-Malik.

I feel as though I've run out of Contender Series jokes and all I can do now is numbly describe what's happening on the screen. NICK KLEIN BY DECISION.

FEATHERWEIGHT: Austin Bashi (13-1) vs John Yannis (9-3)

We are trapped in the wheel of the universe. Two years ago, the UFC raised up Raul Rosas Jr. as their great new undefeated Contender Series soldier and booked him into a fight with Christian Rodriguez to prove he belonged with big boys of his division. Rodriguez beat him senseless. Six months later, they tried it again with another undefeated DWCS prospect in Cameron Saaiman. Rodriguez soundly outworked him. Five months after that they made a third attempt, this time with undefeated knockout artist Isaac Dulgarian, and Rodriguez turned him away, too. But this past January saw Rodriguez coming off a stoppage loss, which meant their obsession with getting him beaten by an undefeated prospect could live again, and like clockwork, they sent in the recently-signed Austin Bashi, a 13-0 fighter with regional championships and plenty of finishes and a brand new Contender Series contract that made him a big betting favorite. Rodriguez beat him too. The UFC wanted Bashi to fight Francis Marshall here--the man who lost to Isaac Dulgarian--but he couldn't make it, so now Bashi gets his own late replacement, John "Angel" Yannis, who, and this may shock you, has mostly fought journeymen with bad records and whose best win came over Nick Aguierre, whom you may vaguely remember getting cut from the UFC two years ago after losing two fights in a row, because that is the speed at which we now dispose of the corporately unimportant.

The sins of our Earth rise to meet us. AUSTIN BASHI BY SUBMISSION.

FLYWEIGHT: Felipe Bunes (14-7) vs Rafael Estevam (13-0)

No matter how depressing things get, the Flyweight division is always here to drag them back up to a baseline level of quality. Felipe Bunes has had some pretty difficult luck over the last couple years--damn near every single fight he's been scheduled for has had some kind of cancellation, rescheduling or last-minute replacement, and this is no different. His UFC debut was supposed to be against Zhalgas Zhumagulov, injuries put it off for six months; he was rescheduled for the struggling Denys Bondar and wound up with Joshua Van. An armbar against Jose Johnson got Bunes back in the win column this past January, and tonight's matchup was supposed to be a fight-of-the-year-potential showdown with André Lima, but Lima couldn't make it, so we've got Rafael Estevam instead. "Macapá" has managed to win his first two appearances with the UFC, and having beaten Charles Johnson he is, by the transitive property, the rightful top Flyweight contender, but instead he got to beat up Jesus Aguilar and now he's a late replacement, the truest calling of the modern warrior.

It's another stroke of bad luck for Bunes, who is pretty great, but Estevam is a real prospect as a title contender and I think he's going to outwork Felipe all night. RAFAEL ESTEVAM BY DECISION.

WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT: Piera Rodriguez (10-2) vs Ketlen Souza (15-5)

The world of women's mixed martial arts is tough. It's small, it's poorly-marketed, and the opportunities are so slim that it's easy to be remembered for a single moment. Piera Rodriguez is good. She beat Invicta champion Valesca "Tina Black" Machado, she beat Josefine Knutsson in her last fight, she's 3-2 in the UFC--on paper, she should be a perfectly acceptable prospect. In practice? All anyone remembers is her fight with Ariane Carnelossi last year, where Piera earned the incredible honor of getting disqualified for repeated intentional headbutts. On one hand, she's Mark Coleman's favorite fighter now! On the other, she's going to have to do some incredibly cool stuff to ever shake that off. Ketlen Souza is very unlikely to allow her to get away with it. She traded in her own Invicta title for a UFC contract and promptly missed almost a year after Karine Silva tore her knee apart in her debut, but she came back with a pair of wins that included a big upset submission against the highly-regarded Yazmin Jauregui. But her shot at a ranking went through Angela Hill, and after years of getting screwed in split decisions she probably should've won, Angie finally had a split go her away against Ketlen, when, arguably, it should've been ruled against her.

Ketlen will probably get her revenge here, though. KETLEN SOUZA BY SUBMISSION.