CARL'S FIGHT BREAKDOWNS, EPISODE 144: A TREE FALLS IN THE WOODS

Carl looks at UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs Barber and gets mad about promotional malpractice, but what else is new.

SATURDAY, MAY 31 FROM THE EVER-GROWING POINTLESSNESS OF THE UFC APEX
PRELIMS 3 PM PDT / 6 PM EDT | MAIN CARD 6 PM / 9 PM

Ordinarily I use the horizontally-aligned posters because they fit better, but I wanted to show you the regular-flavor poster just so you could appreciate what they did to fit the text onto it. Just look at it. Soak it in. Appreciate that graphic design.

We're back from our week off, but we cannot escape the Apex. Once again we have a largely forgettable card, and once again there are not one but two fights that could determine top contenders in the women's divisions, and once again they're both buried on an Apex card, and once again we will all collectively bemoan that the women aren't drawing the way men do.

I love this sport, but I'm painfully aware of how frequently I find myself writing some variant of 'I love this sport, but' when I talk about it, and more and more I wonder if there's a finite supply of those in me and how close to the bottom we are getting.

just an inexplicably put together card

MAIN EVENT: CORONATION STREET
WOMEN'S FLYWEIGHT: Erin Blanchfield (13-2, #4) vs Maycee Barber (14-2, #5)

It's hard to avoid the way the context of this fight has changed.

For most of the last few years there have been two women perceived as top contenders at Women's Flyweight: Manon Fiorot and Erin Blanchfield. Both dominated the division, both had monstrous winning streaks, both presented interesting stylistic challenges, and both had it made repeatedly clear that the UFC did not want them in the title picture.

Manon Fiorot, on a five-fight streak that included multiple title contenders, was picked to welcome Rose Namajunas to the Flyweight division in an absurdly blatant attempt to get Rose back into contention after the debacle of her Strawweight loss to Carla Esparza. When Manon won the UFC was busy with the Alexa Grasso/Noche UFC trilogy, so instead of giving her the title fight she richly deserved, they had her fight Blanchfield so their contenders could eat one another.

That fight was devastating for Erin's title hopes. Her wrestling and grappling are some of the scariest in the division, so when she not only came up completely empty on takedown attempts but did, herself, get taken down by Fiorot, it was a real bad look--as were her attempts to trade with the larger, sharper striker. She got outstruck, she got outwrestled, and she ultimately lost every single round of their fight.

And the UFC, which never misses a desired marketing opportunity, booked her comeback fight against Rose Namajunas.

Once again all the hype was on Rose's side, and once again she came up short. It was a much closer fight than her attempt against Manon, with Blanchfield struggling in the early rounds and coming on strong as the fight wore on. Her striking still didn't look great, but it had tightened up enough to stave off Rose's best attempts, and she was able to ground Rose for most of the back half of the fight. It made the pecking order once again clear: There was the champion, and then there was Manon Fiorot, and then there was Erin Blanchfield, and then there was everyone else. When the UFC announced Blanchfield vs Barber I couldn't help feeling that same matchmaking frustration again.

Until three weeks ago, when Manon Fiorot finally got her years-belated shot at Valentina Shevchenko and failed. The pecking order is once again open, and that's when the UFC tries to get the people they want into it.

And they've wanted Maycee Barber for a long time. There were only three contracts given out to women on the first two seasons of the Contender Series: Maycee was the third and it wasn't hard to see why. She was undefeated (at 4-0, but it's regional women's MMA, so it's hard to ask for more), she was barely twenty years old, and unlike many of her peers she was strong and vicious enough to smash her opponents into stoppages on the ground. They didn't go easy on her, either: Her first three UFC fights all came against promising fighters on winning streaks and she destroyed all of them, including a knockout over Gillian Robertson that has aged absurdly well. The UFC, seeing that their marketing darling was working out, decided to protect their investment by finally giving her a gentler, more promotionally friendly showcase: A headlining spot on the prelims of Conor McGregor's pay-per-view comeback to the sport, where she'd face beloved legend Roxanne Modafferi, who after an illustrious career was nearing forty, coming off a loss and a split decision, and was headed for retirement in the very near future, making it the perfect time to give her rub to the new star.

Except Roxy won.

That wasn't supposed to happen. But it's fine! It's fine. Maycee took a year off to rehab knee injuries and erase the memory of the loss, and then the UFC booked her against fellow embattled marketing darling Alexa Grasso, who was struggling to make a new name for herself at Flyweight after failing down at 115 pounds. Maycee would get her steam back and re-enter the contendership circle and everything would go right back to the way it was, and all she had to do was beat Alexa.

Maycee did not beat Alexa.

Okay, that's unfortunate. But that's fine, too. We can rehabilitate her. Put her back at the base of the ladder and bring her back gentle. She's ranked #13 right now, and Miranda Maverick is #14, and she's only had two UFC fights, and one of them was against Gillian Robertson and she did way worse than Maycee did. We'll get her back into the fold as long as she beats Miranda.

Maycee did not beat Miranda. But she did. Despite being outstruck, outgrappled and outfought so clearly that the media scorecards went unanimously in her direction, Miranda lost a split decision. It wasn't just agreed to be the worst robbery of the year, it was one of the worst robberies in the sport's history.

I'm not going to say the UFC's faith in Maycee faltered after that fight. They've kept the push going, they clearly still want her. I am going to say in the four years since that decision Maycee has not made it into the cage against a fighter with a winning streak longer than 1. She hasn't looked terrible, either--hell, her career best performance came in her complete drubbing of Amanda Ribas in 2023. But they kept her away from Manon, and Jasmine Jasudavicius, and Tracy Cortez, and, say, a Miranda Maverick rematch. Who did they book her against, in the hopes of creating a new title contender?

Rose Namajunas, of course.

They were supposed to fight last July, and instead Barber went on the shelf for a year. After months of struggling with medical issues she's finally ready to go again and they're not wasting any time getting her into the title picture. They've already waited four years longer than they intended.

But matchmaking is not Maycee's job, fighting is, and she's real goddamn good at it. If you'd asked me about this fight in 2023 I would've picked Blanchfield without a second thought, but after watching her struggle to get her last few opponents down and look just a touch on the desperately flailing side when forced into protracted striking battles, my faith is far less certain than it once was.

That said: Maycee gets taken down an awful lot. Everyone who's attempted to take Maycee down in the last five years has succeeded at least once. Even when Erin is failing to take down her opponents, she'll still string dozens of indefatigable attempts together. Over the course of five rounds, with more than a year of rust, against one of the most tenacious wrestlers in the division, I think ERIN BLANCHFIELD BY DECISION is more likely than not.

And I look forward to returning to the conversation about the UFC's endless attempts to get Rose Namajunas into contendership two weeks from now, when Miranda Maverick, who is on a four-fight winning streak, faces off against Rose Namajunas.

CO-MAIN EVENT: FUCK YOU, WRESTLERS
LIGHTWEIGHT: Mateusz Gamrot (24-3 (1), #7) vs Ľudovít Klein (23-4-1, NR)

Sometimes you get what you want and it still makes you mad.

The UFC does not really want Mateusz Gamrot. It's no secret that having wrestling as your core style puts you behind the eight-ball with the matchmakers, but sometimes things get pushed to the point of absurdity, and Gamrot's been there for years. In 2023, Gamrot had taken a loss to Beneil Dariush but was still a top-ten ranked fighter with an incredible record and the ability to outwrestle damn near anyone.

So they booked him to defend his top ten spot against the #11-ranked Jalin Turner. Which he did, and it got him a match against Rafael Fiziev, a whole one rank higher than he was. And he won, again! So they booked him against the #11 guy again, who was now Rafael dos Anjos. And when Gamrot won again, they booked him against Dan Hooker.

If you are waiting for me to tell you if Dan Hooker was also ranked #11, you already know the answer.

The Dan Hooker fight was as close to a coinflip of a decision as it gets, media scores went right down the middle, and Hooker wound up having the judging luck. Now you're left with a Mateusz Gamrot who's still a top ten contender, still a danger to anyone in the division and still in need of a fight worth making, and for once you can't book him against the #11 guy in the division again because it's Rafael Fiziev and that would just be silly. So who do you give him?

You give him someone who isn't even ranked.

At this point, Ľudovít Klein is one of the most promising Lightweight prospects in the UFC. He's on a six-fight unbeaten streak and a three-fight winning streak (the breakpoint being a draw with Jai Herbert), he just dominated an honored veteran in Thiago Moisés, and fighters like Ignacio Bahamondes and AJ Cunningham are getting booked into featured fights despite Klein defeating them with ease. He's a great technical fighter with incredibly solid defense and has genuine potential as a threat to the rankings. And the UFC is doing nothing with him.

I am a big fan of Ľudovít Klein. I have spent years complaining about the lack of attention they've paid Ľudovít Klein. Since moving up to the Lightweight division in 2022 Ľudovít Klein has gone seven fights without a loss, as long as you spot him the draw against Jai Herbert that would've been a loss had Herbert not lost a point on account of his addiction to kneeing Klein in the dick.

He's a very smart fighter. He's real defensively sound. He's gotten real good at incorporating wrestling into his attacks. He's deserved a ranked match for years.

But this is silly. This is the kind of matchmaking you do when you don't know what's going on with a division anymore. There's a lot of upside for Klein, as he could go from perpetually stuck in the Contender Series mines to ranked in the top ten in one fight, and there is zero upside for Gamrot, who would be a top five contender right now if a butterfly flapped its wings and instead is risking it all against a genuinely challenging prospect with zero name value because the UFC never took him off the fucking prelims.

Some part of me wants Klein to pull it off and give the division new blood, but not enough to override how badly I think he'll get outworked. MATEUSZ GAMROT BY DECISION.

MAIN CARD: WHATEVER FITS
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT: Dustin Jacoby (20-9-1) vs Bruno Lopes (14-1)

The UFC was almost rid of Dustin Jacoby. The first two years of Jacoby's time in the octagon were an unqualified success that saw him net six wins, one draw, several extremely cool knockouts and a number by his name, and the very real possibility that he was just a couple solid fights away from title contention. The next two years saw him go 1 for 5. In fairness, the slide started with a real dubious decision to Khalil Rountree Jr., but in equal fairness, it ended with Dominick Reyes flatlining Jacoby in two minutes, which also marked the first time Jacoby had ever been knocked out on his feet in MMA. They were hoping Jacoby would give them one last loss on his way out, which is why they booked him as the fall guy for Vitor Petrino this past December, but Jacoby gave himself another lease on life by dropping Petrino cold.

So now he must pay, and if one Contender Series winner didn't get the job done, another will fill the void. The UFC wanted Lopes badly enough to make him one of the rare folks to get a second crack at the Contender Series after Brendson Ribeiro knocked him out the first time around, and after dropping the best rookie-crusher Georgia had to offer, Lopes finally made it to the show. You may remember his debut against Magomed Gadzhiyasulov from this past January, and if you don't, that's both understandable and for the best, as it was pretty bad for both men. Gadzhiyasulov barely navigated the grappling, Lopes went 5 for 14 on takedowns, both men combined to exceed 20 significant strikes in a round only once, and both men still collapsed in complete exhaustion the moment the fight was over. Lopes won, but at what cost.

I think Jacoby is better. I hope Jacoby is better. DUSTIN JACOBY BY TKO.

WELTERWEIGHT: Ramiz Brahimaj (11-5) vs Billy Ray Goff (9-3)

Just as a pebble in a pond leaves ripples that stretch beyond the limits of our perception, the brief dream that was CM Punk: MMA Superstar continues to impact the sport across eternity. Ramiz Brahimaj is a man perpetually torn between loss and victory--a man who hasn't had a back-to-back win or loss in seven god damned years. Two of those, admittedly, were spent on the shelf attempting to non-surgically rehab a spinal injury, but any hopes of changing his fortune in his new lease on life ended thanks to Themba Gorimbo, who returned him to his regular back-and-forth state. Another loss would have broken his streak for the worse--but lo, there was Mickey Gall, the man once called in just because he might, possibly, lose a fight against a professional wrestler in his late thirties. He did not--but he did get knocked out by Ramiz.

And he was not supposed to have this fight. Ramiz was scheduled against "The Welsh Gangster" Oban Elliott for this card, and Billy Ray Goff was supposed to meet South Korea's Ko Seok Hyun. But both men had trouble getting visas together for reasons that assuredly have nothing to do with our rapidly accelerating drop into Hell, so the UFC just sort of traded them. Oban Elliott and Ko Seok Hyun are fighting in three weeks when the UFC goes to Azerbaijan, and Goff gets Ramiz. Which is probably a great relief for him, because dude has not been able to catch a goddamn break in the UFC. He had a good debut win over Yusaku Kinoshita, he got rolled by Trey Waters in his followup, and for the last year that's been it. Goff was supposed to fight Nikolay Veretennikov in February but Nikolay pulled out, he was supposed to face Adam Fugitt the following week as a make-up but Fugitt pulled out, and he almost lost a third opportunity here.

Which also means this is a short-notice bout between two guys who were training for completely different opponents. In a pinch I'll pick BILLY RAY GOFF BY DECISION but anything could happen.

WOMEN'S BANTAMWEIGHT: Ketlen Vieira (14-4, #3) vs Macy Chiasson (10-3, #5)

Fun fact: I was prepared to get turbo-mad about this fight, as it was scheduled for the prelims, as all women's contendership bouts seem to be, and they moved it to the main card as I was working on it. So congratulations, Ketlen Vieira, multiple-time title eliminator participant! You are no longer considered so promotionally unimportant as to be stuck on the prelims! You are less important than Bruno Lopes, but honestly, just putting two women's fights on a main card is a fucking step in the right direction. Ketlen's been stuck in perpetual contendership for years. Every woman she's lost to has fought for a UFC championship (presuming Kayla Harrison isn't hit by a truck in the next twelve days), but despite getting to the top of the heap over and over, Ketlen just has not been able to join their ranks. She's fast, she's well-rounded, she's got quick hands, she's exceptionally difficult to stop, and somehow despite all of that she just cannot get over the mountain.

Macy Chiasson is just enjoying her first run at the concept. Most of her career was defined by weight class issues: She was the Featherweight winner for The Ultimate Fighter 28 (jesus christ), celebrated her class by immediately ditching it for Bantamweight, went back up to 145 after some rough luck, lost and somehow missed weight for the larger weight class, and went back down to 135 right around the time the UFC decided to simply ditch the Featherweight division altogether. It's fair to say 135 has been good to Macy--it's the first time she's strung back-to-back victories together since early 2021. It's also fair to say the competition's been a bit wonky, as said victories came over Pannie Kianzad, who's 1 for her last 5, and Mayra Bueno Silva, who rollercoastered from contending for the world championship to losing at Flyweight and being legally winless in her last four fights. Macy's height and range make her a problem for everyone, but she needs a win over high-level competition.

This is her shot, but I'm not sure it's going to go her way. Macy has trouble forcing opponents to stay at her pace, and Ketlen's hard to play keepaway against. I don't know that she'll do a ton of damage, but I do think she'll be able to outwork Macy on the cards. KETLEN VIEIRA BY DECISION.

(note during editing: As of Wednesday afternoon, the UFC's website and ESPN's notes now disagree as to if this is main card or prelims. If this winds up on the prelims, ignore the first two paragraphs of this entry and repeat the phrase "fuck this company" until you're ready to move on.)

MIDDLEWEIGHT: Zach Reese (8-2) vs Duško Todorović (12-5)

I have no fucking idea what the UFC is doing with Zach Reese, but thankfully, neither do they. They brought him through the Contender Series despite being a 5-0 guy coming off a win against a 5-10 guy and threw him in with an embattled veteran on a three-and-a-half fight losing streak in Cody Brundage in the hopes of getting Reese an easy finish, and instead, Brundage smashed him. They immediately hit the brakes and rehabilitated Reese with a diet of soft targets--first Julian Marquez, a man who not only hadn't won a fight in three years but was coming off back-to-back knockout losses, and then José Medina, who actually lost on the Contender Series but got signed anyway, because, to quote Dana White, "Something in my gut told me to sign this kid." (Medina is now 0-2 in the UFC and got knocked out in the first round two months ago.) Having won two fights and earned some of his hype back the UFC booked him into a short-notice replacement fight against LFA champion Azamat Bekoev, who destroyed him in three minutes.

Having broken their toy again, they must once again fix it with the blood of the unfortunate. Duško Todorović is here to lose. They had hopes for him when they signed him back in 2019, but almost six years later he's 3-5 in the company. None of the three men he beat had winning UFC records, none are still with the company, three of those five losses saw Duško get knocked senseless and a fourth spared him the knockout loss only because his knee collapsed in mid-fight and put him on the shelf for a year and a half. The last man Duško actually beat was Jordan "The Beverly Hills Ninja" Wright, who was doomed to failure not because of his skills, but because The Beverly Hills Ninja came out when Wright was five years old, and Chris Farley's ghost deemed that unacceptable.

ZACH REESE BY KO.

PRELIMS: JAFEL'S RAGE
FLYWEIGHT: Allan Nascimento (20-6) vs Jafel Filho (16-3)

Jafel! Hey! This fight was supposed to happen all the way back in August! How does it feel having been stuck on the shelf for an entire year again?

Fine.

Allan Nascimento, huh? That's a big step up for you. I know you've been on kind of a choking-everyone-out roll lately, but Nascimento, man, that guy was in there with Tagir Ulanbekov for fifteen minutes without getting submitted, and submitting people is all he does. Do you really think you can do it?

Yes.

You seem mad, buddy. Is there something you want to talk about?

I almost beat Muhammad Mokaev. I tore his knee apart and I was twenty-eight seconds away from winning one of the biggest upsets of the year. I would have been a top ten fighter on the spot. I would have stolen every bit of his hype. And now he doesn't even work here. Not only will I never have revenge, not only have I lost the greatest testament to my skills, but only now do I understand how undervalued my division is, and with it, me. I see my shadow, and it's shaped like a cogwheel.

Wow. I mean, you're safe, though. You're an exciting fighter and you're tied to a Contender Series contract, they've got way less incentive to cut y--

The paucity of money my services are apparently worth is a poor salve for the wounds inflicted by the world I have chosen. Security is a lie. People are hit by cars every day. We are all living in the waking embers of our own inevitable demise and the faster we run from it, the faster it rides to meet us at the crossing of roads. Aside from my God and my word, there is but one thing that serves as an acceptable panacea for what ails me.

What's that?

Breaking a man's fucking leg.

JAFEL FILHO BY SUBMISSION.

LIGHTWEIGHT: Jordan Leavitt (11-3) vs Kurt Holobaugh (21-9 (1))

The ongoing elegy for the slow heat death of The Ultimate Fighter is continuing on schedule, and Kurt Holobaugh is one of its tragic victims. Holobaugh has somehow managed to live every aspect of the modern UFC entry story. He was on the Contender Series--in its first season!--and won, but had the fight overturned thanks to the dastardly use of IV rehydration. He got signed anyhow, made his debut after his suspension, got cut after going 0-3 in less than a year, was back a couple years later for TUF31, won his contract back, and has celebrated it by going 1-2. At risk of invoking MMAth, Holobaugh's first post-TUF fight was a total shut-out of a loss against Trey Ogden, who just a few fights prior had been narrowly outfought by Jordan Leavitt, a man who has fought for the UFC seven times and is primarily remembered for murdering Matt Wiman, twerking in the cage, or getting choked out by Paddy Pimblett and thus securing our presence in one of the worse timelines.

But I still have more faith in him than I do Holobaugh. JORDAN LEAVITT BY DECISION.

CATCHWEIGHT, 180 POUNDS: Andreas Gustafsson (11-2) vs Trevin Giles (16-7)

Trevin Giles, they just do not respect you, man. Trevin was not supposed to be here today. Andreas Gustafsson--yes, he is also from Sweden, no, he is not related to Alexander Gustafsson, stop asking, he's tired of it and he hasn't even fought in the UFC yet--won a Contender Series contract last year and was scheduled to debut in January as a big favorite against Preston Parsons before injuries scratched him from the card. He got rebooked here in another overdog fight with Jeremiah Wells, but ten days before fight night, Wells had to pull out. Who does the UFC call on when they need someone to get a win? Trevin Giles, whose last seven UFC opponents include:

• Mike Malott

• Carlos Prates

• Gabriel Bonfim

• Michael Morales

• Dricus du Plessis

Shockingly: He did not win any of those fights. He's tough! He's not an easy out for anyone. But the UFC hasn't booked him into a fight where he was the betting favorite in three years. He's the guy they call on when they want their dude to win.

Which always makes me root for him to upset the apple cart. But I've watched Andreas and I think he's good enough to grind Giles down. ANDREAS GUSTAFSSON BY DECISION.

LIGHTWEIGHT: MarQuel Mederos (10-1) Michael Aswell (10-2) vs Bolaji Oki (9-2)

On the aforementioned topic of the death of The Ultimate Fighter, we just saw MarQuel Mederos two months ago when he beat Austin Hubbard, the runner-up to Kurt Holobaugh's thorny crown. As much as I hate fights within 90-day periods after other fights--particularly ones that involve three full rounds of fighting and 60+ strikes absorbed--Mederos already lost a year of his prime to injuries and reschedulings, so I get wanting to get it all in while he can. The world had high hopes for Bolaji Oki, but after a year and two fights under the UFC's banner, the jury's still out on his future. He beat Timmy Cuamba in his debut, but it wasn't a stellar performance, and he followed it up with an upset loss to Chris Duncan after getting overenthusiastic on his striking and throwing himself headfirst into a guillotine.

That impatience is an issue here. Oki's got striking chops to spare, but the mass of his career came against overmatched journeymen, and his struggles in the UFC against better-rounded, more patient fighters are illuminating. I'm hoping he's tuned up his gameplan and he can keep the fight at his range and leisure, but MARQUEL MEDEROS BY DECISION feels more likely.

So, funny story: I put together lunch before finishing the editing and publishing today and in the time it took my fiancee and I to make and eat tacos, MarQuel Mederos dropped out of this fight and got replaced by Michael "Texas Kid" Aswell, a former Fury FC champion who lost on the Contender Series last year and is getting his second shot at the UFC with 72 hours to prepare. Fun fact: The man he lost to, Bogdan Grad, was also getting his second shot after losing to Tom Nolan on the Contender Series last year. Tom Nolan's first UFC fight? A loss to Nikolas Motta, who was also getting a second shot through the Contender Series after washing out on TUF Brazil 4. Everything is recursive. Everything is feeding on itself in an inescapable circle. I watched Aswell's tape and he's a striker who seems to be allergic to takedowns so I'm sure he'll be a champion in three years. BOLAJI OKI BY DECISION.

WOMEN'S STRAWWEIGHT: Rayanne dos Santos (14-8) vs Alice Ardelean (9-7)

I am in this fight for justice. Rayanne dos Santos traded in her Invicta Atomweight World Championship for a ticket to the UFC, which really should just start a fucking Atomweight division, and in exchange for her gold she has been given only scorn. In her debut back at the end of 2023 she fought a real good fight against Talita Alencar, won 90% of media scorecards, and lost a decision anyway. She came back six months later against Puja Tomar, who had a lot of hype as the first Indian woman to ever fight for the UFC, and this time Rayanne did even better, winning a clean 100% of media scorecards, and once again, she lost the decision. Alice Ardelean was brought into the UFC to lose to Shauna Bannon, and she did, and they actually wanted her to fight Rayanne just a few months later but injuries meant Ardelean wound up in the cage with Melissa Martinez instead, who beat her even worse than Bannon had. I respect the art of fighting, I respect the difficulty of competition, but with respect to objective truth, Alice Ardelean has only beaten one person with a winning record since 2017, and said record was 2-0, and it was Ardelean's thirteenth professional fight.

I require a righting of the scales. RAYANNE DOS SANTOS BY DECISION.